IRAN IN CRISIS: Geopolitical Fallout, Economic Shockwaves, and Implications for China & BRICS

Mandarin Time
2 days ago
19 min read

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Since December 28, 2025, Iran has been engulfed in its most significant nationwide uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. What began as economic protests by shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar over the collapse of the Iranian rial has evolved into a fundamental challenge to the Islamic Republic's legitimacy, with demonstrations spreading to all 31 provinces and resulting in what human rights organizations describe as "mass unlawful killings on an unprecedented scale."

The crisis unfolds against a backdrop of compounding pressures: a currency that has lost nearly 90% of its value since 2018, inflation exceeding 42%, a 12-day war with Israel in June 2025 that devastated critical infrastructure, the reimposition of UN sanctions through the "snapback" mechanism, and the sudden removal of subsidized exchange rates for essential imports. The Iranian rial has plummeted to approximately 1.47 million per US dollar, with some European platforms displaying its value as "$0.00" due to rounding limitations.

This report analyzes the cascading implications of Iran's crisis for China, which imports over 80% of Iran's oil exports, the BRICS bloc struggling to respond coherently to a founding member's internal collapse, and the broader global economy facing potential oil supply disruptions and regional destabilization.

Key Findings at a Glance

Indicator	Current Status (January 2026)
Death Toll	2,637+ protesters killed (HRANA); Iran claims "hundreds"
Arrests	10,700+ detained including children
Rial Exchange Rate	~1.47 million per USD (record low)
Inflation Rate	42.2% (December 2025); food prices +72% YoY
GDP Contraction	-1.7% (2025); projected -2.8% (2026)
China Oil Imports	1.38 million bpd (80%+ of Iran's exports)
Internet Status	National blackout since January 8
US Response	Trump threatens military action; new sanctions imposed

1. TIMELINE OF THE CRISIS

The 2025-2026 Iranian protests represent a convergence of economic collapse, political grievance, and external pressure unprecedented in the Islamic Republic's history.

1.1 Pre-Crisis Context (2024-2025)

June 2025: Israel launches 12-day military campaign targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, air defenses, and military infrastructure
September 2025: UN sanctions "snapback" triggered by E3 (UK, France, Germany) over nuclear program violations
October-November 2025: Rial loses 40%+ of value; inflation surges to 48.6%
December 2025: Government removes subsidized dollar-rial rate for essential imports
December 28, 2025: Protests erupt in Tehran's Grand Bazaar as rial hits 1.45 million per dollar

1.2 Protest Timeline

Date	Key Events
Dec 28	Shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar close shops, begin protests over currency collapse
Dec 29	Protests spread to Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz; rial hits record low of 1.45M/$
Dec 30	University students join; first clashes with security forces reported
Dec 31	Government orders closures in 21 of 31 provinces; government building attacked in Fasa
Jan 1	Central Bank governor resigns; Abdolnaser Hemmati appointed replacement
Jan 2-3	Protests reach all 31 provinces; US captures Venezuela's Maduro, raising regime change fears
Jan 4-7	Death toll rises to 45; Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi calls for 8 PM protests
Jan 8	CRITICAL: Internet blackout begins; Khamenei orders live fire; mass casualties begin
Jan 9-10	Iran activates military-grade Starlink jammers; estimated 12,000 killed in 48 hours
Jan 11-12	Government declares 3 days of mourning; FM Araghchi blames "terrorists"
Jan 13-14	Trump warns of "strong action"; Iran denies execution plans; de-escalation signals
Jan 15	Protests appear "smothered"; death toll reaches 2,637; new US sanctions on officials

2. IRAN'S ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

Iran is experiencing what analysts describe as its "deepest and longest economic crisis in modern history", surpassing even the devastation of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. The convergence of external sanctions, internal mismanagement, and military conflict has created conditions approaching hyperinflation.

2.1 Currency Freefall

The Iranian rial's collapse represents one of the most dramatic currency devaluations in modern history:

Period	Exchange Rate (Rials/USD)	Depreciation	Key Driver
2018 (Pre-sanctions)	42,000	Baseline	JCPOA withdrawal
January 2025	700,000	-94%	Accumulated sanctions
March 2025	1,000,000	-96%	World's lowest value
July 2025	900,000	-95%	Post-12-day war
December 2025	1,250,000	-97%	Subsidy removal
January 2026	1,470,000	-97.1%	Crisis peak

2.2 Macroeconomic Indicators

GDP Contraction: -1.7% in 2025; World Bank projects -2.8% for 2026
Inflation: 42.2% headline (December 2025); 72% food prices; 50% healthcare
Budget Deficit: Approximately 40% at fiscal year start; 1,800 trillion tomans estimated
Government Debt: IMF projects ~40% of GDP by 2026
Labor Participation: 41% (19% below regional average)
Poverty Rate: 22-50% of population (estimates vary widely)
Minimum Wage Purchasing Power: Fallen from ~$180/month to ~$100/month

2.3 Structural Failures

The Middle East Forum's analysis identifies Iran's crisis as unprecedented in scale:

"Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran never has faced such a long list of simultaneous crises, even during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. During that war, average annual inflation stood at around 20 percent, and the rial depreciated by only about 15 percent per year."

-- Dalga Khatinoglu, Middle East Forum, December 2025

Energy Crisis: Half of Iran's industry halted due to rolling blackouts; 3-4 hour daily outages
Water Crisis: Systemic mismanagement leading to shortages across multiple provinces
Brain Drain: Accelerating emigration of skilled workers and professionals
Investment Collapse: Foreign direct investment virtually non-existent under sanctions

3. CHINA'S STRATEGIC EXPOSURE

China occupies a uniquely vulnerable position in Iran's crisis. As the purchaser of over 80% of Iran's oil exports and Iran's largest trading partner, Beijing faces both economic and strategic risks from regime instability.

3.1 Oil Import Dependency

Metric	Value (2025)
China's share of Iranian oil exports	80%+ (highest on record)
Average daily imports	1.38 million barrels per day
Share of China's total crude imports	13-14%
Discount vs. global benchmark	$8-10 per barrel below ICE Brent
Annual savings estimate	$4-5 billion
Growth since 2020	+400% (from 339,400 bpd)
Primary buyers	Shandong "teapot" independent refiners

3.2 The $400 Billion Partnership Question

Iran's 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China, signed in 2021 and valued at up to $400 billion, was intended to transform the bilateral relationship through:

$280 billion in energy sector investments over 25 years
$120 billion in infrastructure and manufacturing
Technology transfer in telecommunications, transport, and banking
Integration into Belt and Road Initiative corridors

However, as Al Jazeera's January 2026 analysis notes, the partnership "has not delivered economic stability" and "failed to mitigate the harsh consequences of sanctions." Key limitations include:

Chinese FDI in Iran remains "anemic", far below stated goals
Large state-owned Chinese companies avoid direct involvement to escape secondary sanctions
Trade operates primarily through informal channels and "shadow fleet" mechanisms
China prioritizes transactional oil purchases over transformative investment

3.3 China's Response to the Crisis

Beijing's reaction to the protests has been notably cautious:

Official Response: Foreign Ministry called for "restraint and peaceful conflict resolution"—standard diplomatic language
No Direct Criticism: Unlike 2022 protests, China has avoided explicit condemnation of protesters or endorsement of crackdown
Oil Industry Concerns: Financial Times reports Chinese oil buyers "concerned they may lose Iranian discounted oil" amid instability
Diplomatic Hedging: Beijing maintains channels with both government and monitors opposition developments

Professor Heinz Gärtner of the University of Vienna observes: "Most states prefer limited engagement with Iran to avoid exposure to secondary sanctions. Iran's return to high-level forums is significant, yet its influence remains conditional."

4. BRICS BLOC UNDER STRAIN

Iran's crisis presents the expanded BRICS grouping with its first major test of internal cohesion. The bloc's inability to respond effectively exposes the fundamental tensions between its rhetorical solidarity and practical limitations.

4.1 Iran's BRICS Membership Context

Joined BRICS: January 1, 2024 (alongside Egypt, Ethiopia, UAE)
Strategic Rationale: Counter US dollar dominance, escape sanctions isolation
Supreme Leader's Vision: "One of our problems today is being dependent on the dollar" (January 2025)
Economic Reality: Highest inflation in BRICS; GDP growth far below other members

4.2 Divergent Member Responses

Member	Position on Iran Protests	Strategic Calculation
Russia	Echoes sovereignty, condemns Western "meddling"	Solidarity with fellow sanctioned state; shared anti-US narrative
China	Calls for restraint; avoids direct comment on crackdown	Protects oil access; hedges against regime change
India	Studied restraint; calls for calm	Balances Iran ties with US relationship; competed for Iran oil
Brazil	Minimal public comment	Avoids antagonizing Western partners
South Africa	General call for peaceful resolution	Hosting BRICS naval exercises; cautious posture
UAE	Silent on Iran specifically	Regional rival; complex bilateral relationship

4.3 The Limits of BRICS Unity

The Middle East Monitor's analysis is stark:

"This isn't just a regional flare-up, it should set off alarm bells from Canberra to Cape Town and Beijing to Brasília. It puts the world in a cruel light: brute power and paranoid geopolitics on one side, the fragile moral and legal rules that hold states to account on the other... The divergence underscores a truth often obscured by BRICS communiqués: this is not a values-based coalition but a balancing act among incompatible political systems."

Key structural weaknesses exposed:

No mutual defense obligations or enforcement mechanisms
Competing economic interests (Russia and Iran compete in oil markets)
FATF blacklisting limits Iran's integration into alternative payment systems
Internal opposition to Iran's membership (India resisted sanctioned states; Brazil and South Africa worried about Western partners)

5. US-CHINA TENSIONS AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

5.1 Trump Administration Response

The US response has oscillated between threats of military action and diplomatic de-escalation:

January 1-7: State Department expresses "concern" about violence against protesters
January 8-10: Trump declares "help is on its way" to protesters; threatens military action
January 11-12: Administration warns Iran of "grave consequences" for executions; prepares military options
January 13: Trump warns of "strong action" if executions proceed
January 14-15: De-escalation signals after Iran claims no execution plans; Trump says US will "wait and see"

5.2 US Actions Taken

New Sanctions: Treasury Department targets Supreme Council for National Security secretary and other officials
Tariff Threat: Trump announces tariffs on Iran's trading partners
Military Posturing: Personnel relocated from Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base; Kuwait diplomats warned away from US bases
Diplomatic Pressure: Gulf allies (Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) urged Iran to show restraint

5.3 Venezuela Precedent

The US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, has cast a shadow over the Iran crisis:

Demonstrated US willingness to use military force for regime change
Iran and Venezuela maintained economic ties to circumvent sanctions
"Bella 1" ship (shadow fleet vessel) intercepted by US with UK support
Chinese concerns about losing both Venezuelan and Iranian discounted oil
Iranian protesters emboldened; regime fears similar intervention

5.4 Implications for China

The Iran crisis creates multiple pressure points for Beijing:

Risk Category	Assessment
Oil Supply Disruption	13-14% of seaborne imports at risk if regime collapses or US tightens enforcement
Secondary Sanctions	Trump administration has already sanctioned 3 Chinese "teapot" refiners
Investment Losses	$400 billion partnership largely unrealized; limited direct exposure
Strategic Positioning	Failure to protect ally damages credibility in Global South
Belt and Road	Iran's instability threatens North-South Transport Corridor plans

6. SCENARIO ANALYSIS: POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Scenario 1: Regime Stabilization

The Islamic Republic suppresses protests through continued force, internet blackout, and targeted arrests, returning to a tense but stable status quo.

Indicators: Protest videos stop; internet gradually restored; no major defections
Economic Impact: Rial stabilizes at 1.3-1.5 million/$; inflation remains 40%+
China Implications: Oil trade continues; partnership remains transactional
BRICS Impact: Crisis becomes cautionary tale; limited bloc response validated

Scenario 2: Prolonged Instability

Protests continue in waves despite crackdown; economy deteriorates further; regime maintains control but faces recurring challenges.

Indicators: Periodic flare-ups; brain drain accelerates; security spending increases
Economic Impact: Rial falls to 2+ million/$; hyperinflation risk; GDP contracts 5%+
China Implications: Oil supply disruptions; shadow fleet operations complicated
BRICS Impact: Bloc credibility damaged; other members distance from Iran

Scenario 3: Negotiated Transition

Internal and external pressure forces regime to accept meaningful reforms or negotiated transition.

Indicators: Elite defections; military neutrality; international mediation
Economic Impact: Potential sanctions relief; rial recovery; FDI returns
China Implications: Must navigate relationship with new government; competition with West for influence
BRICS Impact: Demonstrates bloc flexibility; potential model for peaceful transition

Scenario 4: Regime Collapse

Combination of economic collapse, security force defections, and popular uprising leads to regime fall.

Indicators: Military splits; mass defections; opposition coordination
Economic Impact: Short-term chaos; medium-term recovery potential if stable government emerges
China Implications: Loses strategic partner; must rebuild relations; oil disruption
BRICS Impact: Major credibility blow; questions about bloc's value proposition

7. RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX

7.1 Risk Categories for Investors and Policymakers

Risk Factor	Probability	Impact	Mitigation
Oil supply disruption	Medium	High	Diversify sources; build strategic reserves
Secondary sanctions on China	High	Medium	Shift to compliant intermediaries
Regional military conflict	Low-Medium	Very High	Monitor US-Iran tensions; hedge oil positions
Iranian regime collapse	Low	Very High	Scenario planning; relationship diversification
BRICS fragmentation	Low	Medium	Bilateral hedging; avoid over-reliance on bloc
Strait of Hormuz closure	Very Low	Extreme	Alternative route planning; LNG contracts

7.2 Key Indicators to Monitor

Rial exchange rate: Crossing 2 million/$ signals severe deterioration
Oil export volumes: Drops below 1 million bpd indicate crisis deepening
Security force cohesion: Defections would be critical turning point
Internet restoration: Prolonged blackout suggests ongoing instability
US military positioning: Gulf asset movements signal intervention risk
China diplomatic signals: Shift from neutrality would be significant

8. CONCLUSION

The 2025-2026 Iranian protests represent more than another cycle of unrest in a country with a long history of popular mobilization. They expose the fundamental fragility of a regime that has prioritized security spending, regional intervention, and nuclear ambitions over the economic welfare of its citizens. The convergence of currency collapse, inflation, sanctions, and military defeat has created conditions that may prove irreversible.

For China, the crisis underscores the limits of economic partnerships with sanctioned states. Despite purchasing over 80% of Iran's oil exports and signing a $400 billion cooperation agreement, Beijing has been unable to stabilize its partner or translate economic leverage into political influence. The shadow fleet mechanisms and discounted oil that have sustained bilateral trade exist precisely because the relationship remains transactional rather than transformational.

For BRICS, Iran's crisis reveals the gap between the bloc's rhetorical ambitions and operational capabilities. The inability to respond coherently, with Russia defending sovereignty, China hedging, and other members maintaining careful distance, demonstrates that BRICS functions as a loose coordination mechanism rather than the alternative global order its proponents describe. The bloc may survive this test, but its limitations are now starkly exposed.

For the United States and its allies, the crisis presents both opportunity and risk. The Trump administration's oscillation between military threats and diplomatic de-escalation reflects the genuine complexity of the situation, any intervention could trigger regional war, while inaction in the face of mass atrocities carries its own costs.

伊朗危机

地缘政治冲击、经济震荡

及对中国与金砖国家的影响

执行摘要

自2025年12月28日以来，伊朗陷入了自1979年伊斯兰革命以来最重大的全国性起义。最初由德黑兰大巴扎的商贩因伊朗里亚尔崩溃而发起的经济抗议，已演变为对伊斯兰共和国合法性的根本挑战，示威活动蔓延至全部31个省份，人权组织称之为「史无前例规模的大规模非法杀戮」。

危机发生在多重压力叠加的背景下：货币自2018年以来贬值近90%，通胀超过42%，2025年6月与以色列的12天战争摧毁了关键基础设施，联合国通过「快速恢复」机制重新实施制裁，以及政府突然取消基本进口品的补贴汇率。伊朗里亚尔已暴跌至约147万兑1美元，部分欧洲平台因舍入限制将其价值显示为「$0.00」。

本报告分析伊朗危机对中国（进口伊朗80%以上石油出口）、正在艰难应对创始成员国内部崩溃的金砖集团，以及面临潜在石油供应中断和地区不稳定的全球经济的连锁影响。

核心发现一览

指标	当前状态（2026年1月）
死亡人数	2,637+名抗议者死亡（HRANA）；伊朗声称「数百人」
逮捕人数	10,700+人被拘留，包括儿童
里亚尔汇率	约147万兑1美元（历史最低）
通胀率	42.2%（2025年12月）；食品价格同比+72%
GDP收缩	-1.7%（2025年）；预计-2.8%（2026年）
中国石油进口	138万桶/日（占伊朗出口80%+）
互联网状态	自1月8日起全国断网
美国反应	特朗普威胁军事行动；实施新制裁

一、危机时间线

2025-2026年伊朗抗议代表了伊斯兰共和国历史上经济崩溃、政治不满和外部压力前所未有的交汇。

1.1 危机前背景（2024-2025年）

2025年6月：以色列发动12天军事行动，打击伊朗核设施、防空系统和军事基础设施
2025年9月：联合国制裁「快速恢复」机制被英法德三国（E3）触发
2025年10-11月：里亚尔贬值40%以上；通胀飙升至48.6%
2025年12月：政府取消基本进口品的补贴美元-里亚尔汇率
2025年12月28日：里亚尔跌至145万兑1美元，德黑兰大巴扎爆发抗议

1.2 抗议时间线

日期	关键事件
12月28日	德黑兰大巴扎商贩关闭店铺，开始抗议货币崩溃
12月29日	抗议蔓延至伊斯法罕、马什哈德、设拉子；里亚尔创历史新低145万/$
12月30日	大学生加入；首次报道与安全部队冲突
12月31日	政府下令31省中21省停工；法萨政府大楼遭袭击
1月1日	央行行长辞职；阿卜杜勒纳塞尔·赫马蒂接任
1月2-3日	抗议蔓延至全部31省；美国俘获委内瑞拉马杜罗，引发政权更迭担忧
1月4-7日	死亡人数升至45人；王储礼萨·巴列维号召晚8点抗议
1月8日	关键转折：互联网全面断网；哈梅内伊下令开枪；大规模伤亡开始
1月9-10日	伊朗启动军用级星链干扰器；据估计48小时内12,000人死亡
1月11-12日	政府宣布三天哀悼；外长阿拉格齐指责「恐怖分子」
1月13-14日	特朗普警告「强力行动」；伊朗否认处决计划；降温信号
1月15日	抗议似已被「压制」；死亡人数达2,637；美对官员实施新制裁

二、伊朗经济崩溃

伊朗正经历分析人士所说的「现代历史上最深最长的经济危机」——甚至超过1980-88年两伊战争的破坏。外部制裁、内部管理不善和军事冲突的交汇已造成接近恶性通胀的局面。

2.1 货币自由落体

伊朗里亚尔的崩溃是现代历史上最剧烈的货币贬值之一：

时期	汇率（里亚尔/美元）	贬值幅度	主要驱动因素
2018年（制裁前）	42,000	基准	美退出JCPOA
2025年1月	700,000	-94%	累积制裁效应
2025年3月	1,000,000	-96%	全球最低币值
2025年7月	900,000	-95%	12天战争后
2025年12月	1,250,000	-97%	取消补贴
2026年1月	1,470,000	-97.1%	危机顶峰

2.2 宏观经济指标

GDP收缩：2025年-1.7%；世界银行预测2026年-2.8%
通胀：2025年12月整体42.2%；食品72%；医疗50%
预算赤字：财年初约40%；估计1,800万亿托曼
政府债务：IMF预测2026年将达GDP的约40%
劳动参与率：41%（低于地区平均19个百分点）
贫困率：人口的22-50%（估计差异较大）
最低工资购买力：从约180美元/月降至约100美元/月

2.3 结构性失败

中东论坛的分析指出伊朗危机的规模前所未有：

「自1979年伊斯兰共和国成立以来，伊朗从未面临过如此长的同时发生的危机清单——即使在1980-88年两伊战争期间也没有。在那场战争期间，年均通胀约为20%，里亚尔每年仅贬值约15%。」

——达尔加·哈蒂诺格鲁，中东论坛，2025年12月

能源危机：一半工业因轮流停电而停产；每天停电3-4小时
水危机：系统性管理不善导致多省短缺
人才外流：技术工人和专业人员移民加速
投资崩溃：制裁下外国直接投资几乎不存在

三、中国的战略敞口

中国在伊朗危机中处于独特的脆弱地位。作为伊朗80%以上石油出口的买家和伊朗最大的贸易伙伴，北京面临政权不稳定带来的经济和战略双重风险。

3.1 石油进口依赖

指标	数值（2025年）
中国占伊朗石油出口份额	80%+（历史最高）
日均进口量	138万桶/日
占中国原油进口总量	13-14%
相对全球基准折扣	低于ICE布伦特8-10美元/桶
年度节省估计	40-50亿美元
自2020年增长	+400%（从33.94万桶/日）
主要买家	山东「茶壶」独立炼油厂

3.2 4000亿美元伙伴关系的问题

伊朗与中国于2021年签署的25年全面战略伙伴关系协议，价值高达4000亿美元，旨在通过以下方式改变双边关系：

25年内2800亿美元能源领域投资
1200亿美元基础设施和制造业投资
电信、交通和银行业的技术转让
融入「一带一路」倡议走廊

然而，正如半岛电视台2026年1月的分析所指出，该伙伴关系「未能带来经济稳定」，「未能减轻制裁的严酷后果」。主要局限包括：

中国在伊朗的外国直接投资仍然「贫血」——远低于既定目标
大型国有中国企业为逃避二级制裁而避免直接参与
贸易主要通过非正式渠道和「影子船队」机制运作
中国优先考虑交易性石油采购而非变革性投资

3.3 中国对危机的反应

北京对抗议的反应明显谨慎：

官方回应：外交部呼吁「保持克制和和平解决冲突」——标准外交辞令
无直接批评：与2022年抗议不同，中国避免明确谴责抗议者或支持镇压
石油行业担忧：金融时报报道中国石油买家「担心可能失去伊朗折扣石油」
外交对冲：北京保持与政府的渠道，同时关注反对派动向

维也纳大学海因茨·盖特纳教授指出：「大多数国家更倾向于与伊朗有限接触，以避免受到二级制裁。伊朗重返高级别论坛意义重大，但其影响力仍然是有条件的。」

四、金砖集团承压

伊朗危机是扩大后的金砖集团面临的首次重大内部凝聚力考验。该集团无法有效回应，暴露了其口头团结与实际局限之间的根本矛盾。

4.1 伊朗金砖成员国背景

加入金砖：2024年1月1日（与埃及、埃塞俄比亚、阿联酋同时）
战略考量：对抗美元霸权，摆脱制裁孤立
最高领袖愿景：「我们今天的问题之一是依赖美元」（2025年1月）
经济现实：金砖国家中通胀最高；GDP增长远低于其他成员

4.2 成员国反应分歧

成员国	对伊朗抗议立场	战略考量
俄罗斯	强调主权，谴责西方「干涉」	与同被制裁国家团结；共同反美叙事
中国	呼吁克制；避免直接评论镇压	保护石油渠道；对冲政权更迭风险
印度	审慎克制；呼吁冷静	平衡伊朗关系与美国关系；与伊朗石油竞争
巴西	极少公开评论	避免激怒西方伙伴
南非	普遍呼吁和平解决	主办金砖海军演习；谨慎姿态
阿联酋	对伊朗问题保持沉默	地区竞争对手；复杂双边关系

4.3 金砖团结的局限

中东观察的分析直言不讳：

「这不仅仅是一次地区爆发——它应该从堪培拉到开普敦、从北京到巴西利亚都敲响警钟。它将世界置于残酷的光线下：一边是野蛮权力和偏执的地缘政治，另一边是让国家承担责任的脆弱道德和法律规则……分歧凸显了金砖公报常常掩盖的真相：这不是一个基于价值观的联盟，而是不相容政治体系之间的平衡行为。」

暴露的关键结构性弱点：

无相互防御义务或执行机制
经济利益竞争（俄罗斯和伊朗在石油市场竞争）
FATF黑名单限制伊朗融入替代支付系统
内部反对伊朗入会（印度抵制被制裁国家；巴西和南非担心西方伙伴）

五、中美紧张与全球影响

5.1 特朗普政府反应

美国的反应在军事行动威胁与外交降温之间摇摆：

1月1-7日：国务院对抗议者遭受暴力表示「关切」
1月8-10日：特朗普宣布「援助正在路上」；威胁军事行动
1月11-12日：政府警告伊朗处决将有「严重后果」；准备军事选项
1月13日：特朗普警告如果处决进行将采取「强力行动」
1月14-15日：伊朗声称无处决计划后出现降温信号；特朗普表示美国将「观望」

5.2 美国已采取的行动

新制裁：财政部针对国家最高安全委员会秘书等官员
关税威胁：特朗普宣布对伊朗贸易伙伴征收关税
军事姿态：从卡塔尔乌代德空军基地撤出人员；警告科威特外交官远离美军基地
外交施压：海湾盟友（卡塔尔、阿联酋、沙特、科威特）敦促伊朗保持克制

5.3 委内瑞拉先例

美国于2026年1月3日俘获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗，给伊朗危机蒙上阴影：

展示美国愿意为政权更迭动用武力
伊朗和委内瑞拉维持经济联系以规避制裁
「贝拉1号」船（影子船队船只）被美国在英国支持下拦截
中国担心同时失去委内瑞拉和伊朗的折扣石油
伊朗抗议者受鼓舞；政权担心类似干预

5.4 对中国的影响

伊朗危机为北京制造了多重压力点：

风险类别	评估
石油供应中断	如政权崩溃或美国加强执法，13-14%的海运进口面临风险
二级制裁	特朗普政府已制裁3家中国「茶壶」炼油厂
投资损失	4000亿美元伙伴关系大部分未实现；直接敞口有限
战略定位	未能保护盟友损害在全球南方的信誉
一带一路	伊朗不稳定威胁南北运输走廊计划

六、情景分析：可能结果

情景一：政权稳定

伊斯兰共和国通过持续武力、互联网断网和定向逮捕压制抗议，恢复到紧张但稳定的现状。

指标：抗议视频停止；互联网逐步恢复；无重大叛逃
经济影响：里亚尔稳定在130-150万/$；通胀保持40%+
中国影响：石油贸易继续；伙伴关系保持交易性质
金砖影响：危机成为警示案例；有限的集团反应得到验证

情景二：持续不稳定

尽管镇压，抗议以波浪形式持续；经济进一步恶化；政权维持控制但面临反复挑战。

指标：周期性爆发；人才外流加速；安全开支增加
经济影响：里亚尔跌至200万/$以上；恶性通胀风险；GDP收缩5%+
中国影响：石油供应中断；影子船队运营复杂化
金砖影响：集团信誉受损；其他成员与伊朗保持距离

情景三：协商转型

内外部压力迫使政权接受有意义的改革或协商转型。

指标：精英叛逃；军队中立；国际调解
经济影响：可能的制裁解除；里亚尔回升；外国直接投资回归
中国影响：必须处理与新政府的关系；与西方竞争影响力
金砖影响：展示集团灵活性；和平转型的潜在模式

情景四：政权崩溃

经济崩溃、安全力量叛逃和民众起义的结合导致政权垮台。

指标：军队分裂；大规模叛逃；反对派协调
经济影响：短期混乱；如稳定政府出现则有中期复苏潜力
中国影响：失去战略伙伴；必须重建关系；石油中断
金砖影响：重大信誉打击；质疑集团价值主张

七、风险评估矩阵

7.1 投资者和决策者的风险类别

风险因素	概率	影响	缓解措施
石油供应中断	中等	高	多元化供应来源；建立战略储备
对中国二级制裁	高	中等	转向合规中间商
地区军事冲突	中低	极高	监测美伊紧张局势；对冲石油头寸
伊朗政权崩溃	低	极高	情景规划；关系多元化
金砖分裂	低	中等	双边对冲；避免过度依赖集团
霍尔木兹海峡关闭	极低	极端	替代路线规划；LNG合同

7.2 需监测的关键指标

里亚尔汇率：突破200万/$表明严重恶化
石油出口量：低于100万桶/日表明危机加深
安全力量凝聚力：叛逃将是关键转折点
互联网恢复：长期断网表明持续不稳定
美军部署：海湾资产调动表明干预风险
中国外交信号：从中立转变将具有重要意义

八、结论

2025-2026年伊朗抗议不仅仅是这个有着长期民众动员历史的国家又一轮动荡。它们暴露了一个将安全支出、地区干预和核野心置于公民经济福利之上的政权的根本脆弱性。货币崩溃、通胀、制裁和军事失败的交汇已造成可能不可逆转的局面。

对中国而言，危机凸显了与被制裁国家经济伙伴关系的局限。尽管购买了伊朗80%以上的石油出口并签署了4000亿美元的合作协议，北京既无法稳定其伙伴，也无法将经济杠杆转化为政治影响力。维持双边贸易的影子船队机制和折扣石油之所以存在，恰恰是因为这种关系仍然是交易性的而非变革性的。

对金砖而言，伊朗危机揭示了该集团修辞雄心与运营能力之间的差距。无法做出一致回应——俄罗斯捍卫主权、中国对冲、其他成员保持谨慎距离——表明金砖作为松散协调机制运作，而非其支持者所描述的替代全球秩序。该集团可能挺过这次考验，但其局限性现已清晰暴露。

对美国及其盟友而言，危机既带来机遇也带来风险。特朗普政府在军事威胁与外交降温之间的摇摆反映了局势的真正复杂性——任何干预都可能引发地区战争，而在大规模暴行面前不作为也有其代价。

资料来源与参考文献