春节 Spring Festival: A Journey Through China's Regional New Year Traditions
- Mandarin Time
- 23 hours ago
- 35 min read
From Shanghai's Glittering Skyscrapers to Tibet's Sacred Monasteries
Chinese New Year, known as 春节 (Chūn Jié) or the Spring Festival, is the most significant celebration in Chinese culture, marking the beginning of the lunar calendar and a time for family reunion, ancestral reverence, and hopes for prosperity in the year ahead. In 2025, Chinese New Year falls on January 29th, ushering in the Year of the Snake, a symbol of wisdom, intuition, and transformation in Chinese astrology.
Yet to speak of "Chinese New Year" as a single, uniform celebration would be to miss one of its most fascinating aspects: the extraordinary regional diversity that reflects China's vast geography, distinct climates, and rich tapestry of local cultures. From the wheat-based dumpling traditions of the frozen north to the seafood feasts and flower markets of the subtropical south, from the cosmopolitan glamour of Shanghai to the ancient Buddhist rituals of Tibet, each region brings its own unique flavor to the festivities.
This guide explores how five distinct regions, Shanghai, Beijing, Sichuan, Guangdong, and Tibet, celebrate the Spring Festival, examining their traditional foods, clothing customs, unique rituals, and the cultural meanings that make each celebration special.
SHANGHAI 上海: Where Tradition Meets Modernity
Shanghai's Chinese New Year celebrations perfectly embody the city's identity as a place where neon-lit skyscrapers meet the glow of crimson lanterns. As China's largest city and a global financial hub, Shanghai has developed a distinctive blend of ancient customs and contemporary innovations that make its Spring Festival celebrations uniquely cosmopolitan.
Traditional Customs and Rituals
The preparations begin well before New Year's Eve. According to Shanghai's official tourism guide, from the 25th day of the twelfth lunar month through New Year's Eve, households traditionally perform a thorough cleaning known as "Sweeping Away the Dust" (扫尘). Using long-handled brooms, families dust the corners of roofs and walls, removing cobwebs and accumulated dirt. In Shanghainese, the word for "dust" (尘, chén) sounds similar to "old" (陈, chén), giving rise to the tradition's alternate name: "Sweeping Away the Old." This practice symbolizes clearing away bad luck and making room for fresh beginnings.
The fifth day of the Chinese calendar holds special significance in Shanghai as the birthday of the God of Wealth. Also known as "Breaking the Fifth," this day marks the end of the New Year holiday for businesses. According to tradition, shop owners set off firecrackers and prepare offerings of meat, pastries, and candles to invite prosperity for the new year before resuming operations.
One of the most sacred traditions is the Longhua Temple midnight bell ceremony. At 853 Longhua Road, the city's oldest temple invites 108 Buddhist monks to climb the pagoda and strike the bell at midnight, symbolizing the beginning of the new year and driving away evil spirits. The Jing'an Temple midnight blessing draws thousands of locals who light incense and pray for a prosperous year, with early arrivals receiving red thread bracelets believed to ward off misfortune.
Food and Cuisine
Shanghai's New Year cuisine reflects the region's sweet tooth and its position as a culinary crossroads. The reunion dinner on New Year's Eve is the centerpiece of celebrations, where families gather to share symbolic dishes. According to China Highlights, several dishes are essential to a proper Shanghai New Year feast.
Tangyuan (汤圆), sweet glutinous rice balls served in warm broth, are perhaps the most beloved Shanghai New Year food. Their round shape symbolizes family reunion and togetherness. While tangyuan are traditionally eaten during the Lantern Festival that closes the New Year celebrations, in Shanghai and throughout southern China, families enjoy them throughout the holiday period. Lion's Head Meatballs (狮子头) are another Shanghai specialty, tender and juicy pork meatballs steamed or braised with vegetables in a sweet and sticky sauce, named for their shape resembling a lion's head.
Fish is mandatory at any Shanghai New Year table because the word for fish (鱼, yú) sounds like "surplus" (余, yú), symbolizing abundance. The fish must be served whole, with head and tail intact, and traditionally some is left over to ensure surplus in the coming year. Niangao (年糕), sticky rice cakes, are essential because their name sounds like "higher year," symbolizing rising prosperity. In Shanghai and Jiangsu province, sweet niangao is preferred, often pan-fried until crispy or added to soups. Spring rolls are particularly popular in eastern China, including Shanghai, their golden color resembling gold bars and promising wealth.
Traditionally, Shanghainese families eat vegetarian dishes on the first day of the New Year, with the second day marking the true start of celebrations with hearty meals including meat and fish. The local specialty Dongpo pork (东坡肉), rich braised pork belly, symbolizes affluence due to its fatty layers.
Dress and Attire
Shanghai has a special relationship with the qipao (旗袍), the elegant figure-hugging dress that gained international fame in the city during the 1920s-30s. According to China Highlights' guide to traditional clothing, Shanghai-style qipao are more commercial and forward-looking than other regional styles, incorporating Western elements in their designs and colors. The Shanghai qipao became synonymous with sophisticated femininity and remains a popular choice for women during New Year celebrations.
The color red dominates New Year attire, as traditional beliefs held that red could scare away evil spirits. Wearing new clothes is essential, symbolizing a new beginning. Modern Shanghainese often blend traditional elements with contemporary fashion, wearing red silk blouses, embroidered blazers with gold threadwork, or modern interpretations of the qipao paired with contemporary accessories. Children typically receive new outfits, often adorned with lucky characters like 福 (fú, fortune) or traditional patterns featuring dragons and phoenixes.
Modern Celebrations and Events
The Yuyuan Garden Lantern Festival transforms the historic Ming Dynasty-era garden into a dreamscape of silk lanterns shaped like dragons, phoenixes, and zodiac animals. The 2025 theme, "The Silk Road Reimagined," fuses ancient caravan motifs with neon-lit futuristic designs. The adjacent night market offers traditional snacks including candied hawthorns, crab-shell pastries, and rose-petal rice wine.
Public fireworks are restricted in central Shanghai due to safety and pollution concerns, but the city compensates with spectacular alternatives. The Bund Light Show sees the Oriental Pearl Tower transformed into a luminous coiling dragon while the Shanghai Tower projects virtual red envelopes across the Huangpu River. For the best view, locals recommend the Jinling Road Ferry for just ¥2, timing the crossing to catch the 8 PM synchronized show.
For a step back in time, Zhujiajiao Water Town, a 1,700-year-old canal town near Shanghai known as the "Venice of the East," offers traditional lantern boat rides beneath stone bridges draped in scarlet silk, ancient tea houses serving biluochun green tea, and performances by Pingtan musicians. Meanwhile, in Shanghai's artsy M50 district, galleries and cafes host intimate gatherings featuring calligraphy workshops where visitors write 福 (fortune) characters with ink and gold leaf, alongside jazz performances and pan-fried shengjian bao dumplings.
BEIJING 北京: The Heart of Imperial Tradition
As China's capital for centuries, Beijing holds the deepest repository of Chinese New Year traditions. The city transforms into a spectacle of red and gold, with streets adorned in festive decorations and the air filled with the aroma of traditional foods. Beijing's celebration represents the archetypal northern Chinese Spring Festival, where the long, cold winters and wheat-based cuisine have shaped distinct customs that contrast sharply with southern traditions.
Traditional Customs and Rituals
Beijing's New Year preparations begin on the eighth day of the twelfth lunar month with the Laba Festival (腊八节). According to China Highlights, this day marks the traditional beginning of Spring Festival preparations. The main activity is praying to ancestors and gods for fortune and a successful harvest, while families prepare Laba porridge (腊八粥), a rice congee with nuts, dried fruits, and beans.
Northern China celebrates the Little Year (小年) on the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month, one day earlier than southern China. This day involves praying to the Kitchen God (灶神), a deity believed to report each family's activities to the Emperor of Heaven. Part of the ceremony includes taking down and burning the old image of the Kitchen God, with families purchasing a new image after New Year's Day to display in their kitchens.
From the 24th day, families carry out a thorough "winter-cleaning" known as "sweeping away the dust" (扫尘). According to the Royal Museums Greenwich, there are specific practices for cleaning during the New Year period. People generally do not sweep the floor on New Year's Day, and if they do, they must not dump rubbish or throw water outside the house, as this would mean parting with wealth. When sweeping, one must never sweep into someone's feet, as it brings bad luck.
The tradition of Shousui (守岁), staying up all night on New Year's Eve, remains strong in Beijing. After the reunion dinner, families sit together chatting, playing games, and watching the CCTV New Year Gala, which starts at 8 PM and ends when the New Year arrives at midnight. While historically families stayed up until dawn, today most remain awake until the midnight firecrackers and fireworks subside.
Food and Cuisine
In northern China, the dumpling (饺子, jiǎozi) reigns supreme as the essential New Year food. According to Travel China Guide, dumplings are customarily eaten on New Year's Eve, the 1st day, and the 5th day of the New Year. Their shape resembles ancient Chinese silver ingots (元宝), symbolizing wealth. Legend holds that the more dumplings you eat during New Year, the more money you'll make. Families wrap coins, candies, or peanuts in some dumplings, each expressing different blessings: a coin for wealth, candy for a sweet life, peanuts for health and longevity.
The act of making dumplings is itself a bonding ritual. Families gather to wrap hundreds together, with the process strengthening familial bonds and representing unity. The fillings vary, including minced pork, diced shrimp, ground chicken, beef, and vegetables. In Henan province, people eat "Dumplings with Noodles" on New Year's Day, a dish symbolizing "gold wires threading silver ingots."
Beyond dumplings, Beijing's New Year table features Peking Duck from renowned establishments like Quanjude and Bianyifang, and instant-boiled mutton (涮羊肉) from traditional restaurants like Donglaishun. Local snacks are essential: Tanghulu (糖葫芦), skewered candied hawthorn fruits, Lvdagun (驴打滚), sweet glutinous rice rolls coated in soybean flour, and Luzhu (卤煮), a hearty stew of pork intestines and tofu.
On the third day of the New Year, Beijing and Tianjin residents traditionally eat Hezi (盒子), a fried pie filled with vegetables and meat. The name means "money box" in Chinese, expressing wishes for wealth.
Dress and Attire
Beijing-style qipao is more traditional and conservative than Shanghai's, with brighter colors and more complicated decorations. According to China Highlights, the Tang suit (唐装) is the most popular choice for Chinese New Year celebrations. Despite its name, the Tang suit actually originated from Qing Dynasty clothing, specifically the magua (马褂, "horse gown") of the Manchu ethnicity. Traditional Tang suits feature Chinese characters expressing good luck, with the most popular being 福 (fú, happiness and good luck) and 寿 (shòu, longevity).
For formal occasions, the Zhongshan suit (中山装), also known as the Mao suit overseas, remains an option for men. Designed by Dr. Sun Yat-sen, it combines traditional Chinese and Western elements with its four big pockets, five central buttons, and three smaller sleeve buttons. However, during New Year celebrations, the emphasis is on red and gold colors and new clothing, symbolizing fresh beginnings and good fortune.
Temple Fairs and Events
Beijing's temple fairs (庙会) are legendary. According to My Beijing China, the most famous fairs are held at White Cloud Temple (白云观), the Altar of Earth (地坛), Longtan Park (龙潭公园), and the Temple of Intense Happiness. These fairs have preserved traditional customs, such as riding a monkey around the temple fair and throwing coins through the hole in a copper coin at White Cloud Temple.
The fairs feature artistic folk performances, rich tasty snacks, and folk handicrafts that showcase Beijing's distinctive northern character. Traditional performances include playing diabolo (空竹), traditional magic, puppet shows, yangge dance, stilt walkers, and lion and dragon dances. Visitors can purchase clay bristled figurines, dough figurines, and paper-cuts characteristic of local culture and Beijing charm.
Modern celebrations have added new attractions. The Forbidden City and Tiananmen Square feature unique lighting setups creating charming night scenes. The Spring Festival Lantern Carnival at Beijing Garden Expo features over 100,000 colorful lights interwoven with dazzling light shows, Chinese New Year parades, authentic Beijing cuisine, and amusement projects. For a quieter experience, Beijing's historic hutongs, including Nanluoguxiang, Yandai Diagonal Street, and Liulichang, are decorated with New Year reds and colorful lights, offering crispy Baodu, delicate Chatang, and creative shops.
SICHUAN 四川: Spice, Warmth, and Togetherness
Sichuan province, famous for its fiery cuisine and the numbing sensation of Sichuan peppercorns, celebrates Chinese New Year with traditions that emphasize warmth, togetherness, and bold flavors. As the capital, Chengdu blends ancient teahouse culture with modern charm, creating a distinctive celebration that differs markedly from both northern and coastal traditions.
Traditional Customs and Rituals
One of Sichuan's most distinctive traditions is that lunch, not dinner, serves as the most important meal during celebrations. According to Chengdu Expat, this is also the time for drinking, with elaborate spreads featuring the region's specialty cured meats and sausages. After lunch, families typically take an afternoon break filled with majiang (麻将), sunflower seeds, tea, and conversation.
The rituals of curing, drying, and smoking meats are themselves preparations for the New Year. Since the weather turns cold, you'll see spiced, cured sausages and smoked pork bellies and ribs hanging throughout Chengdu, with each family making their own sausages using recipes passed down through generations.
In Sichuan's Ngawa region, where Han and Tibetan populations coexist, an interesting cultural fusion occurs. According to regional traditions documented by Alibaba Party, joint festivities sometimes feature both dumplings and yak butter tea, highlighting how Chinese New Year functions not only as a Han-centric event but as an occasion for cross-ethnic interaction in frontier zones.
Food and Cuisine
The Sichuan hotpot (四川火锅) is central to New Year celebrations. According to Bridge to Locals, hotpot symbolizes warmth and togetherness, with families gathering around a large simmering pot of spicy broth. The art lies in balancing huājiāo (花椒, numbing Sichuan peppercorns) and dried chilies in the broth. Popular ingredients include huanghoungni (yellow throat fish), crisp lotus root, sliced beef, lamb, tofu, and an array of vegetables. Each person customizes their meal with dipping sauces made from sesame oil and various seasonings, and hosts often whisper secret family sauce recipes.
The cured meat and sausages (腊肉香肠) truly shine during the New Year feast. In Sichuan, these are famous for their spicy taste, contrasting with the sweet flavor of Guangdong versions. These meats are served steamed, boiled, or sliced thinly as a meat platter, symbolizing prosperity through abundance. Traditionally, families would also slaughter a chicken and spread its blood in front of their doorway to repel evil spirits. While this ritual continues in rural areas, city families typically skip to cooking the chicken, often served cold and mixed in chili oil (凉拌鸡) or red-braised with seasonal garlic scapes.
Fish is prepared with Sichuan's signature bold flavors, usually spicy or cooked in douban (豆瓣) sauce, the fermented chili bean paste that forms the soul of Sichuan cooking. Dan dan noodles (担担面), with their crescendo of chili oil, and Zhong dumplings (钟水饺), plump pork dumplings in spicy sauce, are street food favorites during the festival period.
Unlike northern China where dumplings are essential, preparing dumplings for the New Year is not a prominent Sichuanese tradition. However, because Sichuan is a land of immigrants with many families of northern descent, some households still practice this tradition, typically eating dumplings on the last day of the lunar year rather than during the New Year's Day feast itself. Drinking plays an important role in festivities, with families toasting to fortune using premium bottles of Wuliangye (五粮液) or Maotai (茅台) saved for the occasion.
Dress and Attire
Sichuan's New Year attire follows the general Chinese emphasis on red and new clothing, though the region's relatively milder winters compared to Beijing allow for lighter traditional garments. The Tang suit remains popular, particularly for older generations, while younger Sichuanese may blend traditional elements with modern fashion. In areas with Tibetan and Qiang ethnic populations, you'll see a beautiful diversity of traditional costumes during New Year celebrations, reflecting the province's multicultural heritage.
Events and Celebrations
Chengdu's Kuanzhai Alley (宽窄巷子) hosts a spectacular New Year celebration featuring more than a dozen tables offering hotpot feasts along the popular tourist destination. The event includes folk performances, a lantern lighting ceremony, and displays of local folk customs. A highlight is a performance inspired by the "Twelve Market Fair," which dates back to the Tang and Song dynasties, when monthly themed market fairs sold Sichuan specialties.
Chengdu's teahouse culture takes center stage during the holidays, with traditional establishments hosting gatherings and performances. Street food safaris through neighborhoods like Yulin Community and Jianshe Road offer the best of Sichuan snacks, includingbingfen (冰粉), a refreshing jelly dessert drizzled with sweet toppings. For those seeking nature, snow-dusted trails offer chances to spot golden snub-nosed monkeys, while temple visits to places like Wenshu Monastery provide quieter spiritual experiences.
GUANGDONG 广东: Flowers, Fortune, and Cantonese Flair
Guangdong province, with its subtropical climate and vibrant Cantonese culture, celebrates Chinese New Year in ways that feel almost like a different festival compared to the frozen north. Here, outdoor celebrations take precedence, flowers replace dumplings as the dominant symbol, and seafood feasts honor the region's maritime heritage. The province's capital, Guangzhou, known as the "City of Flowers" (花城), hosts celebrations that are arguably the most visually stunning in all of China.
The Flower Market Tradition
Visiting flower markets (花市) is the defining tradition of Guangdong's Spring Festival. According to GDToday, if you come to Guangdong to celebrate Spring Festival, you will feel like stepping into spring as the province is adorned with blooming flowers everywhere. From the week leading up to New Year through New Year's Eve, open-air night markets occupy major streets, with long rows of wooden stalls groaning under the weight of fresh flowers, sprigs of willow and blossom, bamboo, and baby kumquat trees.
Each flower carries specific symbolic meaning. Mandarin orange trees (桔子) symbolize great luck and prosperity because the word for orange (桔) sounds like "luck" (吉). Peach blossoms (桃花) are believed to bring opportunities for love. Pussy willow (银柳), called "silver willow" in Chinese, has a Cantonese pronunciation that sounds like "house" (楼), promising new property. Kumquat trees represent wealth, chrysanthemums symbolize longevity, and orchids represent refinement and fertility.
Notable flower markets include Liwan Flower Market, famous for its unique "floating market" setup on Liwan Lake, and Yuexiu Xihu Flower Market, which features 10 Cantonese intangible cultural heritage projects. The Chencun Spring Flower Market in Foshan's Shunde District boasts a stunning 16.8-meter orange tower. Victoria Park in Hong Kong hosts the region's largest flower market, attracting over 500,000 visitors annually. Bargaining is expected, with prices highest on opening day and dropping significantly on the final night.
Food and Cuisine
Cantonese New Year cuisine emphasizes seafood and fresh ingredients, reflecting the region's coastal location. According to CGTN, essential dishes include Pencai (盆菜), a hearty dish layered with pork, vegetables, and premium seafood such as shrimp and abalone, symbolizing family unity when shared. A whole steamed fish is presented head-first to elders as a sign of respect.
Turnip cake (萝卜糕, lo bak go) made from shredded radish and rice flour is pan-fried and served during dim sum meals. Niangao takes a different form here, with savory versions featuring red bean or taro fillings preferred over the sweet versions of the north. Deep-fried dumplings (油角) shaped like ancient wallets symbolize wealth, while Jiandui (煎堆), sesame balls with sweet or savory fillings, are crispy outside and sticky inside.
The cured sausage (腊肠) of Guangdong features a distinctly sweet flavor, contrasting with Sichuan's spicy version. In Hong Kong and among Cantonese communities, eating vegetables on the first day of New Year is traditional because vegetables (菜) sounds like wealth (财, cái) in Cantonese, symbolizing a clean beginning of new money for the year.
Cantonese dim sum takes on special significance during the holiday. Restaurants offer festive menus featuring white cut chicken (白切鸡) for purity, roast goose, and elaborate seafood presentations. The emphasis on freshness and natural flavors, with cooking methods including steaming, stir-frying, and braising, reflects Cantonese cuisine's philosophy of highlighting original ingredients.
Dress and Greetings
Hong Kong-style qipao, heavily influenced by European fashions, features shorter sleeves and simpler decorations than Beijing and Shanghai styles. The milder winters of Guangdong allow for lighter silks and even pastel accents complementing the traditional red.
The Cantonese New Year greeting is "Gong Hey Fat Choi (恭喜发财)," meaning "wishing you a prosperous year," rather than the Mandarin "Xinnian Kuaile" (新年快乐, Happy New Year) used in northern China. The custom of lai see (利是), the Cantonese term for red envelopes, has specific rules: married adults give money only to unmarried relatives, including adult nieces and nephews. The amount is carefully chosen to avoid unlucky numbers (like 4, which sounds like "death") and favor auspicious ones (like 8, which sounds like "prosperity"). Crisp new bills are preferred, and banks provide them specifically for lai see preparation.
Events and Celebrations
The lion dance (舞狮), known as "Guangdong Xingshi," is one of the most iconic traditional performances in Cantonese culture. According to China Culture Tour, it is performed during festivals, celebrations, weddings, and business openings to bring good luck, drive away evil spirits, and promote prosperity. Street performances of lion and dragon dances are more popular in southern China than in the north, where temple visits are favored.
The 2025 Guangzhou Spring Festival Lantern Festival at Yuexiu Park is the largest lantern festival in South China showcasing Lingnan Cantonese culture. The Greater Bay Area Lantern Carnival in Nansha District features 218 light displays, 200,000 colorful lantern ornaments, over 2,000 varieties of regional delicacies, and more than 1,000 performances. In Shantou, visitors can experience Chaoshan traditions through lion dances and art-science fusion exhibitions. Zhanjiang and Maoming host Nianli (年例), a unique carnival featuring street feasts, ancestral rituals, and piaose parades.
TIBET 西藏: Losar, the Sacred New Year
Tibet celebrates its own New Year, called Losar (ལོ་གསར་), which sometimes coincides with Chinese New Year and sometimes falls a month apart, depending on the Tibetan lunar calendar. Losar is the most important festival in Tibetan culture, lasting up to fifteen days and blending ancient Bon traditions with Buddhist ceremonies in a celebration that is profoundly spiritual yet joyously festive.
Origins and Timing
According to Peregrine Treks, Losar traces its roots to pre-Buddhist Bon traditions, emerging as a winter solstice ritual when the Bon people believed harmful spirits wandered the land. To appease these spirits and secure a prosperous year, they made offerings of incense and other items, a custom known as "sang" burning. With Buddhism's arrival in Tibet around the 7th century CE, Losar gradually absorbed Buddhist elements and transformed into a multi-day celebration.
The first three days of Losar are considered most important. According to the Central Tibetan Administration, the first day is Lama-Losar, when people visit monasteries, pay respect to the Lamas, and receive blessings, usually spent with immediate family only. The second day is Gyalpo-Losar (King's Losar), when official public celebrations occur. The third day is Chokyong-Losar (Guardian Deities' Losar), when prayer flags are hoisted on hills and around houses, and guardian deities are propitiated with supplication prayers.
Traditional Customs and Rituals
Preparations begin as early as December. According to the Smithsonian Folklife Magazine, it is common for the whole family and relatives to help with making new traditional clothes, deep cleaning the house, acquiring food and drink for the feast, baking tons of Rebgong bread to give as gifts, and deep frying flour-based pastries for the table display.
On New Year's Eve, family members gather by the fire to enjoy Guthuk (གུ་ཐུག), a traditional dumpling soup made with nine ingredients typically including yak meat, white radish, dried cheese, small hand-made noodles, onion, beans, tomato, spinach, and cilantro. The soup is believed to bring good luck and health. According to the Rubin Museum, hidden ingredients representing different fortunes, like wool, chili, and charcoal, are placed in the dough balls. Finding these ingredients in your bowl can foretell your fortune for the year ahead.
Tibetans burn juniper branches, known as "sang" burning, as a purifying ritual throughout Losar. This aromatic smoke is believed to cleanse the air of negativity, ward off evil spirits, and create a sacred space. Raising prayer flags is another significant tradition. These vibrant flags, covered in prayers and sacred mantras, flutter in the wind, sending wishes for good fortune, health, and happiness to all.
After certain family members return from the midnight ritual, usually around 1 or 2 a.m., the rest of the family rises. Everyone dresses in new traditional clothes, though if a family member passed away in the previous year, the family abstains from wearing new clothes. Another smoke offering is made on the rooftop and in the family shrine, followed by a second dinner, usually yak meat or lamb momos with milk tea. In the morning, well-dressed children visit elders in the village one by one, bowing and showing respect, carrying gifts of baked Rebgong bread topped with eight momos, fried bread, fruits, candy, and meat. Elders reciprocate with gifts of fruit, candy, or money.
Food and Cuisine
Khapse (ཁ་སེ་) pastries are essential to Losar celebrations. According to Tibet Travel, these fried cookies are presented at the altar in decorative arrangements. The main pillar is Bongbu-achok (literally "donkey's ear"), about one foot in length and 5 inches wide, sturdy and hard from the hot boiling oil. Multiple Bongbu-achok are stacked in even numbers (eight, ten, twelve) to create an impressive display called Derkha.
Torma are important ritual offerings made from flour and butter, often placed in shrines. Chemar (ཕྱེ་མར), a wooden box containing tsampa (roasted barley flour) mixed with butter and barley grains, is brought when visiting other homes as an auspicious offering. Chang (ཆང), Tibetan barley beer similar to moonshine, flows freely during celebrations, with men receiving Tibetan distilled liquor as gifts.
Sweet rice cooked with root and fruit is a specialty meal, along with momos (མོག་མོག) made with dried radish, lamb, or yak, noodle soup, and joma, a sweet wild mushroom mixed with rice. Yak butter tea is served constantly, warming families against the high-altitude cold.
Dress and Attire
According to Tibet Vista, when it comes to Losar, Tibetan families come together to celebrate in traditional clothing. Men wear colorful chubas (ཕྱུ་པ), the traditional Tibetan robe, while women don beautiful layered outfits paired with stunning jewelry, proudly showcasing their cultural heritage.
Since many Tibetans come to Lhasa from different parts of Tibet during Losar, visitors can see an incredible variety of different styles and decorations. Traditional Tibetan dress varies by region, from the elaborate headdresses of Amdo to the distinctive jewelry of Kham. It is probably the best time to enjoy people-watching and experience the traditional way of life.
Religious Ceremonies and Events
Cham dances are elaborate masked dances performed by monks depicting the victory of good over evil. Monks dressed in traditional robes and red headdresses perform the Lama Dance, accompanied by the deep sounds of ceremonial horns. The Jokhang Temple and other monasteries are packed with local pilgrims who come to offer prayers, light butter lamps, and perform rituals seeking blessings for the New Year.
The Potala Palace hosts the grandest celebrations, with festive decorations and traditional performances including the Guozhuang dance. Fireworks light up the night sky on New Year's Eve. During the Chunga Choepa (Butter Lamp Festival) on the fifteenth day of Losar, torma offerings are traditionally displayed.
For five days, major monasteries host Gelugpa Monlam Chenmo, a great prayer festival featuring the unveiling of massive Buddha paintings (thangkas), showcases of intricate butter sculptures, and the masked cham dance. Everybody stays in the monastery attending religious rituals until the sixteenth day to close the Losar celebrations. Horse races and archery competitions showcase traditional skills and add to the festive atmosphere.
Regional Variations
Even within Tibet, Losar traditions vary. According toWonders of Tibet, inShigatse, located about 260 km south of Lhasa in Tibet's largest barley farming area, locals celebrate one month earlier with the "Farmer's New Year," washing their hair on New Year's Eve to bring good luck. In theGongbu (Kongpo) area in eastern Tibet, people celebrate three months earlier with the "Gongbu New Year," a celebration as grand as Lhasa's Losar, with locals dressed in their finest clothes singing, dancing, and exchanging New Year's greetings.
CONCLUSION: Unity in Diversity
From Shanghai's glittering skyscrapers to Tibet's sacred monasteries, from Beijing's imperial temple fairs to Guangdong's fragrant flower markets, from Sichuan's fiery hotpots to Guangzhou's delicate dim sum, Chinese New Year reveals the extraordinary diversity within Chinese civilization. Each region has developed traditions shaped by its climate, geography, history, and ethnic composition, yet all share the common thread of family reunion, ancestral reverence, and hopes for prosperity in the year ahead.
The northern vs. southern divide is perhaps the most striking: dumplings reign in Beijing while tangyuan and fish dominate in Shanghai and Guangdong; indoor celebrations prevail in the frozen north while outdoor flower markets flourish in the subtropical south; Mandarin "Xinnian Kuaile" echoes in the capital while Cantonese "Gong Hey Fat Choi" rings through Guangzhou's streets.
Yet even these regional distinctions are becoming increasingly fluid. Shanghai's cosmopolitan population brings northern dumpling traditions alongside local tangyuan. Sichuan's immigrant communities practice both Han and Tibetan customs. Digital red packets sent via WeChat connect families across all regions, while the CCTV New Year Gala is watched by hundreds of millions regardless of geography.
What remains constant is the spirit of renewal: the thorough house cleaning to sweep away bad luck, the new clothes symbolizing fresh beginnings, the emphasis on red to ward off evil, and above all, the family reunion dinner that brings generations together. Whether you're striking a bell at Longhua Temple, bargaining for kumquat trees at a Guangzhou flower market, sharing a Sichuan hotpot with family, or joining the Cham dance at a Tibetan monastery, you're participating in one of humanity's oldest and most meaningful celebrations.
As the Year of the Snake begins on January 29, 2025, may it bring wisdom, transformation, and prosperity, however your region defines it. 新年快乐! 恭喜发财! Tashi Delek!
Sources & Further Reading
工厂大迁移：
中国和台湾企业重塑越南经济
税收优惠、关税策略与"越南+1"战略的兴起
在河内以北的工业园区，一场革命正在悄然进行。曾经一望无际的稻田如今被闪亮的工厂取代，崭新的工厂正忙于生产iPhone、AirPods、耐克运动鞋和三星智能手机，这些产品将被运往美国的千家万户中。工厂里的工人们说着越南语，但管理人员却往往说着普通话。这些工厂的老板们大多来自台北、深圳和上海。他们之所以选择在这里而非在中国的原因可以用一个关键词来概括：美国关税。
这便是制造业工厂大迁移的故事,讲述了中国和台湾的企业们如何将越南转变为下一个全球制造业巨头，税收优惠是如何推动这一转变的，一众知名品牌都变为"越南制造"，而这一切对越南经济和全球供应链又意味着什么。
第一部分：迁移的规模
越南的外资热潮
越南已悄然成为全球最受欢迎的外商投资目的地之一，尤其深受制造业喜爱。湄公河资本公司（Mekong Capital）称，截至2024年12月，该国共计拥有42,002个运营中项目，外商直接投资总额高达惊人的5028亿美元。这一趋势丝毫未减弱，根据《宏观交易网》（Trading Economics）报道，在2025年前11个月里，越南实际吸引外资总额达到236亿美元，同比增长8.9%，为五年来最高水平。同期的外资承诺额达到336.9亿美元，表明投资者对越南未来充满信心。
越南的故事之所以如此令人瞩目，则是因为这笔资金的流向。根据《越南简报》（Vietnam Briefing）的制造业追踪报告显示，实际流入越南的外商直接投资中，有高达82.9%流入加工制造业，涵盖从半导体到运动鞋制造的各类工厂。这种以制造业为主的投资推动越南2025年第三季度的GDP增长率达到8.23%，成为东南亚增长速度最快的国家。据富时罗素（LSEG/FTSE）报道，越南的股市在2025年间上涨了57.7%，在这一里程碑时刻，富时罗素宣布越南将于2026年9月从“前沿市场”转变为“新兴市场”。
投资巨头：韩国、台湾和中国大陆
韩国是越南最大的外资来源国，投资总额位列榜首。据《越南网》（VietnamNet）报道，韩国企业已向超过10,329个项目中投入了940亿美元。韩国投资的亮点是三星，它已投资232亿美元在越南建立电子帝国。根据《2025年越南经济调查报告》（Economic Survey of Vietnam 2025）显示，三星也有一半的智能手机都在越南工厂生产的，雇佣了112,000名员工，三星在2014年就贡献了544亿美元，约占越南总出口总额的20%。根据越南国际公司称，韩国的外商直接投资约占越南总出口额的30%。
在过去的几十年里，台湾投资者在越南累计投资390-400亿美元，根据越南投资公司统计，仅2024年就投资了约28亿美元。台湾在电子行业的投资最为显著，那些深度嵌入苹果供应链的企业在越南开展了大规模的业务。富士康，作为苹果最大的代工制造商，也在越南投资超过15亿美元，并雇佣了超过53,000名员工。据全球台湾研究所（Global Taiwan Institute）称，富士康计划到2025年将30%的生产转移到中国以外的地区。而其他苹果供应商,如和硕、纬创和仁宝，正在在北部省份快速扩张，生产MacBook的广达电脑则在2023年4月签署合作协议，称将要在越南生产。
中国大陆的投资是这一系列投资中增长最快且在地缘政治意义最重大的部分。据美国科技媒体Rest of World报道，在2023年，中国在越南新注册的项目数量最多，占总数的22%以上。到2025年前11个月，中国成为第二大投资者，通过406个新制造业项目，贡献了21.3%的新资本。负责组装苹果AirPods的歌尔声学也在北宁省投资超13亿美元，已经建立了四家专门工厂（越南投资评论）。随着中国企业在越南建厂，北宁等城镇已转变为文化中心，中餐馆、奶茶店和中文语言中心应运而生，这是十年前不存在的"科技工人的唐人街"。
第二部分：为什么是越南？
关税因素：逃离中美贸易战
工厂迁移的主要驱动力很简单：美国对中国商品征收的关税使得在中国生产面向美国消费者时变得成本高昂。据越南简报的关税分析称，截至2025年，中国对美国的进口商品累计关税高达惊人的104%。相比之下，根据2025年7月美越贸易协议，越南原产商品仅需要缴纳20%关税，形成了高达84个百分点的巨大优势。
这个数字很有说服力。对于面向美国市场的制造商来说，将生产从中国转移到越南整条产品线的经济效益产生巨大变革。Rest of World报道，一位中国工厂老板告诉记者："起初，人们搬到这里是因为苹果强迫他们这样做。"
然而，这里有一个问题：美国对被认定为转运的商品会征收40%的关税，即那些中国产品经越南转运且仅进行了少量加工的中国产品所应缴纳的关税。这导致了更复杂的合规环境，我们稍后会进行探讨，但这种情况并未阻止对越南合法制造业的大量投资。
税收优惠：越南的竞争优势
除了关税优势外，越南还提供全亚洲最优惠的税收激励政策来吸引制造业投资。根据普华永道的《越南税务概览》，该国标准的企业所得税率为20%，低于中国的25%，且符合条件的投资者可以获得更优惠的条件。对于高科技制造业、经济特区和位于贫困地区的投资项目，越南在开始盈利的前15年提供仅为10%的优惠税率。正如《越南简报》的税收激励指南所详细说明的那样，符合条件的项目可享受长达四年的完全免税待遇，之后是九年减免一半的征收。对于一家高科技企业而言，这意味着在第1至4年无需缴纳企业所得税，第5至13年缴纳5%（即税率优惠的一半）的税款，第14至15年缴纳10%的税款，之后将恢复到标准的20%税率。
这些激励措施所针对的重点行业与那些正在撤离中国的产业完全吻合：半导体设计和制造、高科技制造业和研发、电子和数字技术产品、纺织和汽车零部件等配套产业、可再生能源和人工智能数据中心。此外，还有额外的优惠措施，福利包括用于建设固定资产的货物免征进口关税、根据所在地点不同有3到15年的土地租金减免，以及出口型企业可获得增值税退税。
劳动力成本和劳动力
越南的劳动力成本优势仍然显著。制造业的平均工资为每月250至400美元，该水平工资比中国同类工资低约30至50%。各地区的最低工资标准有所不同，范围在345万越南盾/月到490万越南盾/月（135-195美元）之间。这种费用上的差异对劳动力成本影响巨大，诸如鞋类、服装和电子产品组装等高技术密集型产业。
这些工厂所依赖的劳动力规模庞大：共有5250万工人，劳动参与率为69%。目前超过28%的人拥有正式的培训证书或学位，而且职业培训项目也在不断增多，以满足高科技制造业的需求。不过，技能差距依然存在，尤其是在先进的电子和半导体制造业领域，仍然缺少具备丰富经验的管理人员和工程师。许多中国大陆和台湾地区的工厂会从本国引进管理人员，其中一些大型工厂尤为明显。这些工厂雇佣了数百名中国工人，同时还雇佣了数万名越南工人。
战略位置和贸易协定
越南的地理位置也十分有利，毗邻中国广西省，便于轻松融入现有的中国供应链，原材料和零部件可以相对便捷地通过边境运往南方。海防、岘港和胡志明市等地的大型深水港口将越南工厂与全球航运路线连接起来。也许最重要的是，越南已签署了16项自由贸易协定，包括《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）、《越南-欧盟自由贸易协定》（EVFTA）和《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）。这些协定为越南提供了进亚洲、欧洲和太平洋市场的优惠准入条件，这比印度或印度尼西亚等竞争对手具有显著优势。
第三部分：越南制造的品牌
电子科技
电子行业因外商投资而发生了巨大变革，越南如今是全球大型科技公司的重要生产基地。三星处于领先地位，其近一半的全球智能手机都是在越南的八家工厂生产出来的，并且2024年为越南出口贡献544亿美元。越南现已成为世界第二大智能手机出口国。
苹果产品正在逐渐地成为“越南制造”，正是由于该公司通过其台湾和中国供应商网络来实现的。该公司通过包括富士康、立讯精密、和硕以及纬创等合作伙伴正运营着至少11家工厂。AirPods组装几年前就已迁至越南，iPad、Apple Watch和MacBook的生产也紧随其后。在与越南总理的会面中，苹果公司首席执行官Tim Cook传递了希望更多的越南供应商参与的意向，这标志着将进一步加大投入的信号。格特克公司就是这样的一个例子。歌尔声学仅在北宁省就投资超过13亿美元。除苹果和三星外，越南还是英特尔（河内半导体）、LG、佳能、索尼、松下、谷歌（Pixel手机）和微软（Surface平板）等众多科技公司的生产基地。到2025年，英伟达、高通和爱立信宣布扩大业务的计划。
这种电子迁移的规模体现在一个简单的数字上：电子产品现占越南总出口额的30%以上，2024年达到726亿美元。这是越南历史上首次出现电子产品的出口额达到如此规模。对美国的电子产品出口量超过了服装纺织品的出口量。
鞋类和服装
如果说电子产品代表越南的未来，那么鞋类产业则代表它的现在，而且这确实是一个占据主导性的当下。越南已成为全球制鞋大国，每年在2200多家工厂生产下产出超过13亿双鞋。
耐克已将越南作为其全球制造中心。根据该公司的供应商名单，耐克在越南约拥有159家工厂，生产耐克和匡威品牌的鞋子、服装和运动装备。越南如今占耐克全球鞋类总产量的50%和服装产量的28%，雇用约337,000名工厂工人，这一数字超过了其他任何国家。耐克的64家鞋类工厂大多部分集中在越南南部，特别是在胡志明市及其周边地区，不过也有少数工厂位于北部。
阿迪达斯遵循类似模式，在越南运营156家工厂，雇佣了近254,000名工人，生产约占全球鞋类的40%。这些工厂集中在南部地区，越南的同奈省。卡骆驰（Crocs）公司53%的标志性泡沫凉鞋产自越南，威富集团（名下拥有Vans、Timberland、北面、Dickies等品牌）与208家供应商合作。德克斯（名下拥有UGG、HOKA品牌）现在越南运营14家一级鞋类工厂，而在中国仅有3家，因此，越南在该公司的供应链中占据着核心地位。彪马（Puma）和优衣库（Uniqlo）也在越南保持着重要的生产规模。
各大品牌的集合催生了一个密集的契约制造商生态系统。以台湾企业为例：宝成工业（为Nike、Adidas和Puma生产）、昌信（Nike的主要供应商）和清禄等公司均拥有着雇佣数万工人的大型工厂。这些绝非小型业务——一家中资鞋类制造商可能雇佣200名中国员工和1万名越南员工，这些公司的中层管理人员通常能流利使用越南语、普通话和英语。
其他产业
制造业的迁移并不局限于电子和鞋类行业。宜家（IKEA）从越南采购产品已超过二十年，目前越南提供了宜家全球约3%的木材供应，这一比例在亚洲仅次于中国，位居第二。TCL正将电视生产产业转移到越南，三菱汽车则是已在越南中部的平定省开设了组装工厂。德国汽车供应商采埃孚（ZF）已在越南设立生产基地。随着各企业在寻求中国之外的生产选择，越南的家具制造业也在组件增加。此外，食品饮料加工业、鞋类以外的纺织品制造，以及日益精密的零部件制造，共同构成了越南多元化的工业基础。
第四部分：越南制造业的地理格局
北部电子产业走廊
越南的制造业地理格局可以大致分为两个区域，各具特色。北部各省凭借毗邻中国的地理优势和海防市的深水港通道，已崛起为该国的电子产业重镇。
北宁省在全国新增制造业外商直接投资（FDI）中位居第一，占总投资的13.8%。三星的大型生产基地、歌尔股份的AirPods工厂以及佳能的打印机生产均落户在北宁省。该省的面貌发生了巨大变化，一个新兴的”唐人街"已悄然形成，其中遍布中餐馆、奶茶店和中文语言中心，以满足涌入的中国技术工人和管理人员的生活需求。海防市则凭借其深水港优势，吸引了10.5%的新增FDI，支撑着LG的业务，以及日益扩大的富士康与和硕的生产布局。北江省已成为电子供应链的关键节点，承接了富士康的扩展项目。太原省是三星手机的生产基地，而兴安省则凭借不断增长的电子产业，吸引了7%的新增FDI。
南部鞋类、服装制造中心
以胡志明市为核心的越南南部地区，依然是鞋类和服装制造业的中心。早在电子产业兴起之前，这些行业便已奠定了越南出口大国的地位。胡志明市及其周边省份拥有悠久的纺织服装生产历史，其熟练的劳动力和供应商网络持续吸引着全球品牌。同奈省吸引了9.8%的新增外商直接投资，尤为引人注目，是阿迪达斯（拥有61家工厂）以及宝成（POU CHEN）、昌信（Chelleson）等主要合约制造商的集中地。平阳省是索尼（Sony）、松下（Panasonic）以及各类综合制造业务的所在地，而隆安省则汇聚了越南清禄鞋业及其他鞋类制造企业。耐克在越南的工厂员工中，约有27.6万人（即三分之二）位于南部地区。
第五部分：风险与挑战
转运陷阱
中国和台湾制造商在越南面临的最大风险，是美国对“转运”行为的打击——即仅对货物进行最低加工后，便将中国的产品经由越南输送至美国，以规避关税。根据2025年7月达成的贸易协议，被认定为转运的商品将面临40%的关税，是合法越南原产产品20%税率的两倍。
挑战在于，美国尚未公布“转运”的明确定义。贸易分析人士担心，政府可能采用“接近零容忍”标准，即使产品仅含极少量的中国成分也可能被标记。白宫贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）曾声称，越南对美国出口中约三分之一是中国产品的转运，他表示：“越南每向美国销售15美元商品中，大约有5美元只是进入越南的中国产品，他们贴上‘越南制造‘的标签，再运到美国这里来逃避关税。”
学术界的估计差异很大。哈佛大学（Harvard University）的一项研究发现，2018年到2021年间，越南对美国出口的增长中，仅8.8%可归因于省级层面的转运行为；而更广泛的估计范围在15.7%至41.7%之间。这种不确定性本身就会造成问题：在没有明确指引的情况下，美国进口商面临其合法的越南制造产品可能被高额征税的风险。
根据现行的贸易规则，产品通常需要通过以下两项测试之一才能被认定为越南原产：要么是税则归类改变（即最终产品与投入品分属不同的协调制度编码），要么是满足区域价值成分测试（要求在越南增值35%至40%）。具有讽刺意味的是，如果转运规则被过于宽泛地适用，美国进口商可能会发现，直接以104%的关税从中国进口，比冒险为来源不明的产品支付40%的越南惩罚性关税更为划算。
对中国投入品的依赖
越南的制造业神奇地隐藏着一个弱点：深度依赖中国的零部件和原材料。许多越南工厂（包括台资和中资企业）都从中国采购关键零部件，如电子元件、塑料、金属部件和特种材料。这种依赖性导致了供应链的脆弱性，在新冠疫情的冲击下已显现。在当前贸易环境下，更令人担忧的是，如果美国海关采取严格要求，理论上一个中国产的芯片、拉链或马达就可能导致整个产品被征收40%的"转运"关税。对于那些产品中包含某个中国部件的企业而言，保存详细文件记录并证明在越南进行了"实质性加工"已变得至关重要。
地缘政治的走钢丝困境
越南发现自己正行走在全球两个超级大国之间的微妙平衡线上。一方面，美国要求打击转运行为并且实施更严格的原产地管控——实质上要求越南监管经过其境内的中国商品。越南已表示愿意配合，其政府办公厅已指示贸易和海关官员制定应对非法转运商品的应对计划。
另一方面，中国的影响力仍然不容忽视。如果越南被视为限制与中国相关产品的准入，北京当局方面可能会采取报复措施。可能的回应包括限制越南农产品进口、延迟对越出口的中国货物清关、减少投资流动，甚至加剧南海紧张局势。然而，中国的选择也受制于其自身经济利益——中国对越南出口规模巨大，并在该国投入了大量资金。任何激进的反对措施都可能适得其反，损害已在越南投入数十亿美元的中国企业利益。此外，过度的报复行为将有损中国作为建设性区域领导者的形象，特别是与其将美国描述为"欺凌者"的对比之下。
基础设施与产能瓶颈
越南的成功也带来了自身的问题。越南工业用地的成本急剧上升，部分工业园区的长期租赁价格已达每平方米90美元（2017年仅为60-70美元）。月工厂租金从之前的每平方米3美元攀升至4美元。生产周期可能长于中国高度优化的生产体系，企业有时难以提升供应商能力或确保质量稳定。高科技制造业的技能缺口持续存在，经验丰富的管理人员短缺常常迫使企业从中国大陆或台湾引进员工。随着制造业产能扩张，电网面临挑战。尽管越南基础设施已显著改善，但仍无法匹敌中国沿海制造业区数十年发展所形成的成熟物流体系。
第六部分：对越南经济的影响
转型的故事
工厂迁移潮加速了越南本就瞩目的经济转型。2025年第三季度GDP增速达到8.23%，位居全球前列，政府正着力打造5000亿美元规模的经济体。制造业目前占GDP比重超过36%，并贡献了惊人的86%出口额，而二十年前这一比例仅为49%。以绝对值计算，越南出口额已从2002年的190亿美元增长至2025年前十个月的3910亿美元。
投资热潮已转化为就业机会。截至2025年3月，工业企业就业人数同比增长4.8%，外资企业目前雇用了正规劳动力总量的35%。全国约半数就业岗位直接或间接依赖于出口。工资水平持续增长，2025年初月平均收入达830万越南盾（约合321美元）。越南股市从前沿市场升级为新兴市场——这是多年来首次获得此类升级——标志着国际社会对其经济进步的认可，预计将吸引新一轮证券投资涌入。
结构性担忧
然而越南的成功伴随着明显的风险。最根本的担忧在于技术转移有限。外资企业与本地企业的供应链联系薄弱。经合组织2025年经济调查报告指出，尽管三星在越南规模庞大，但这家科技巨头在2014年仅有四家越南一级供应商——且均局限于包装材料供应，同时有63家外资企业（其中53家为韩企）提供更精密的零部件。在三星越南11.2万名员工中，89%为完成中学教育的装配工人，仅4%拥有大学学历。这种模式显示越南可能面临被固化在装配环节的风险，难以向设计、工程和零部件制造等高附加值环节攀升。
外资的主导地位也带来了脆弱性。外资企业占越南出口总额的75%以上，2025年1至10月3910亿美元出口额中，外资部门贡献了2956.6亿美元。仅三星一家企业就约占越南出口总额的20%。这种集中度意味着首尔、台北或库比蒂诺（苹果总部所在地）的决策可能对越南经济产生巨大影响。若主要投资者收缩业务，其连锁反应将十分严重。
其他结构性问题依然存在。三分之二的越南劳动者缺乏正式合同或社会保险，经济保障受限。世界银行2025年9月报告警告，短期出口增长"掩盖了消费、金融、财政依赖和技术人才方面的结构性弱点"。尽管增长数据亮眼，越南每月约有2.12万家企业退出市场，这提醒人们制造业繁荣的红利并未普惠共享。地区差异依然悬殊——东南部工业枢纽地区的薪资远高于北部和中部省份，尽管政府推动正规化就业，非正规就业仍然普遍存在。
第七部分：未来机遇
越南的发展之路
越南深刻意识到需要突破装配工作的局限，多项举措正致力于从制造业繁荣中获取更多价值。政府雄心勃勃地推进半导体产业发展，目标是到2030年培养5万名受过专业训练的半导体工程师，并为芯片领域吸引116亿美元投资。本地高校正纷纷设立芯片设计专业以培育本土能力。该国也正从终端装配向更高阶的制造环节迈进：生产印刷电路板、传感器和光学元件，而非仅仅完成产品的最终组装。
电动汽车转型带来了另一重大机遇。越南孕育了东南亚首个本土电动汽车制造商VinFast，而更广阔的电动汽车生态系统预计到205年将在全价值链创造高达650万个新就业岗位。若当前发展态势得以延续，越南有望在2030年前达到中等偏上收入国家水平。政府正积极争取美国承认其市场经济地位——此举将降低贸易壁垒，并验证越南经济改革成果。这些宏伟目标能否转化为现实，将取决于对教育、基础设施及本土供应商能力建设的持续投入。
投资者的机会
对于在全球制造业变局中寻找方向的企业而言，越南仍是供应链多元化最具吸引力的选择之一。"中国加一"战略——即在维持中国业务的同时增设替代生产基地——已在越南找到了最具吸引力的落脚点。即使政府对区域性优惠政策的审批日趋严格，针对高科技与绿色项目的税收激励力度依然强劲。工业地产市场蓬勃发展，北宁、海防和同奈已成为关键区域。不断壮大的中产阶级（服务业现占GDP的43%）正持续扩大国内消费市场。至关重要的是，那些投资于完善的原产地追溯体系、增值证明文件并切实提升越南本土含量的企业，将能最好地应对关税与转运政策的变化格局。
结论：越南的下一篇章
越南从稻田到iPhone工厂的转型，堪称我们这个时代最引人注目的经济变迁之一。在美国关税政策的驱动、越南税收优惠的支持以及主要由中国和台湾资本的运作下，这一转型正以将影响未来数十年的方式重塑全球制造业。
工厂迁移的浪潮真实而浩大。三星、富士康、歌尔股份及数百家企业已用数百亿美元的投资投下了信任票。耐克在越南生产的鞋子比地球上任何其他地方都多。苹果的AirPods产自北宁。谷歌的Pixel手机在越南工厂组装。数字不会说谎：越南已成为全球供应链中不可或缺的一环。
但挑战同样巨大。转运规则可能使错综复杂的中越制造网络复杂化，在打击真正逃税行为的同时，也可能误伤合法的商业活动。地缘政治紧张局势需要越南谨慎应对——既要满足美国的要求，又要避免招致中国的反制。更重要的是，越南必须向价值链上游攀登，通过培育本土供应商、促进技术转移以及建立设计与工程能力，才能避免沦为单纯的"中国装配车间"，而是成为一个真正的制造业强国。
对越南而言，这场博弈关乎国运。若应对得当，该国将有望跻身"亚洲四小龙"（韩国、台湾、新加坡）的行列，将制造实力转化为发达经济体的地位。若应对失误，则可能陷入中等收入陷阱，继续为他人组装产品而无法获取真正价值，并极易受到未来关税政策或供应链策略变动的影响。
目前，工厂机器仍在轰鸣，工人持续涌入，"越南制造"的标签正不断走向全球。在这场全球制造业的大洗牌中，越南已将自身置于变革的核心地带。未来十年将决定，这一位置究竟是迈向持久繁荣的发射台，还是仅仅成为永无止境的低成本寻找之旅中的一个中转站。
Comments